Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

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Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by 00521 on Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:51 pm

http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/Japan/Suzuka-Circuit/weather-probability.aspx

http://motorsportstalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/04/phanfone-upgraded-to-super-typhoon-but-japanese-gp-start-

The start time for the Japanese Grand Prix looks set to remain unchanged despite the threat of Typhoon Phanfone, which has now been upgraded to ‘super typhoon’ status.

Phanfone has been lingering the Pacific for some time, and it was confirmed earlier this week to be heading towards Japan across the course of the grand prix weekend.

The worst of the weather is thought to be hitting Suzuka on Monday, which could seriously compromise the planned logistics of getting the paddock to Sochi in Russia for next weekend’s grand prix.

Heavy rain is set to affect tomorrow’s race, with some even speculating that it could be reduced to two laps behind the safety car to avoid being cancelled altogether. In such an instance, half points would be avoided.

One option raised was to bring the start time for the race forwards from 3pm local time, given that sunset is at 5:30pm. However, the plan is to go ahead with the race weekend as originally scheduled, and to deal with the weather as it comes.

The typhoon has today been upgraded to a ‘super typhoon’ by the US Naval Observatory, which will only further concerns about the logistics of getting to Russia over the next few days.

Speaking to Forbes yesterday, F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone said that there were no plans to make any changes to the schedule in spite of the incoming typhoon.

Bernie Ecclestone wrote:
“I’m not moving anything anywhere,” he said. “Nothing is changing at the minute. If it rains the teams will race.

“Nobody knows what it’s going to be like. I asked somebody a few minutes ago and they said that the weather is nice. It rained on Thursday but otherwise it’s okay. Maybe there’s going to be a storm.”



Cordial Best,

00521


Last edited by 00521 on Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:41 am; edited 3 times in total
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Re: Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by 00521 on Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:39 am

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1814web.txt

US Naval Observatory wrote:WTPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 025    
  02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  041800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 131.5E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 131.5E
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  050600Z --- 30.4N 132.6E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  051800Z --- 33.3N 136.6E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 31 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  060600Z --- 36.7N 142.9E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 39 KTS
   ---
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  48 HRS, VALID AT:
  061800Z --- 40.4N 151.6E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  EXTRATROPICAL
   ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 131.8E.
TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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Re: Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by 00521 on Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:45 am

Personally, I worry more about the tens of thousands of spectators, the race marshals and the crew members than the drivers.

How are the many thousands going to navigate the high winds and flooding and then get home?

Seems rather selfish...

No race is worth risking THAT many lives.

They CAN postpone it, or... just use the qually results...



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Re: Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by Jarnooo on Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:18 am

Not changing the race time in Malaysia due to daily tropical thunderstorms in the late afternoon is one thing, but when a bloody typhoon is another thing entirely. It's amazing how little consideration Bernie (and Todt and others) has for safety (today, Sochi next week, Bahrain the last few years etc.)

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Re: Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by Jarnooo on Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:50 am

That said, the last proper wet race in Fuji was brilliant. mrgreen

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Re: Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by 00521 on Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:51 am

Jarnooo wrote:Not changing the race time in Malaysia due to daily tropical thunderstorms in the late afternoon is one thing, but when a bloody typhoon is another thing entirely. It's amazing how little consideration Bernie (and Todt and others) has for safety (today, Sochi next week, Bahrain the last few years etc.)

Exactly what I was thinking.

145 MPH winds? On a mountain top?

What about all the crew, staff, thousands of spectators, who have to drive home at sea level (with 48 foot waves hitting the shores and floods inundating the highways)???

Seems rather unfair to risk everyone's lives, especially if its just going to be just 20-30 parade laps behind a safety car / yellow.

Why no postpone it until the end of the season, etc.?

Doesn't anyone remember the '76 race that Lauda refused to run at treacherously drenched Suzuka when he literally gave the WDC to Hunt (by a POINT), rather than foolishly risk his life again???

(I'll bet he's having flashbacks this weekend).



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Re: Suzuka "Super-Typhoon" forecasts

Post by 00521 on Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:04 am

Suzuka Racetrack forecast wrote:Sunday 05th and Monday 06th are likely to see a significant amount of rain.

Predictions are Monday 12th will have the most precipitation with an accumulation of around 104.0mm.

On the whole winds are likely to be light.



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